The March real estate market started off extremely strong, continuing the trend that we came into at the beginning of the year. Prices and sales were rising at even higher percentages than the month prior, with a momentum that had been increasing significantly since last summer.
The COVID-19 Impact
In the first two weeks of March, our team’s sales were double what we saw in March 2019. But by about the third week, we felt some impact due to COVID-19.
Sales volume and inquiries started to slow as people began to socially distance and/or stay home.
When the provincial state of emergency was put into place days later, we saw sales levels decrease again, but they held steady at this new level. Many homes continued to see competing offers and over-asking sale prices throughout the second half of the month.
Real estate is an essential service; people always need to buy or sell homes. New listings are coming onto the market daily, but it’s in lower volumes compared to pre-COVID-19.
Hamilton Market Activity
| Variable | 2020 | 2019 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 723 | 716 | 1% |
| Dollar Volume | $437,516,422 | $373,096,663 | 17% |
| New Listings | 1,086 | 1,156 | -6% |
| Active Listings | 958 | 1,032 | -7% |
| Months of Inventory | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
| Average Price | $605,140 | $521,085 | 16% |
| Median Price | $556,000 | $489,000 | 14% |
| Median Days on Market | 11.0 | 16.0 | -5.0 |
| Average Days on Market | 21.1 | 31.4 | -10.2 |
RAHB Market Activity
| Number of Sales | Average Sale Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | |
| Hamilton West | 47 | 53 | $548,739 | $484,096 |
| Hamilton East | 74 | 96 | $467,245 | $387,714 |
| Hamilton Centre | 95 | 94 | $452,123 | $382,291 |
| Hamilton Mountain | 168 | 166 | $556,963 | $490,143 |
| Flamborough | 19 | 14 | $833,453 | $706,057 |
| Dundas | 36 | 29 | $884,814 | $673,821 |
| Ancaster | 68 | 55 | $777,796 | $765,218 |
| Waterdown | 37 | 37 | $765,709 | $688,010 |
| Stoney Creek | 129 | 117 | $623,693 | $535,165 |
| Glanbrook | 47 | 47 | $628,073 | $557,715 |
Here’s a closer look at the recent market activity:
Sales Activity
The number of home sales in Hamilton was up 1% in March to 723. This number would have been much higher had sales volume not decreased in the second half of the month.
New Listings
The amount of new listings hitting the market continues to fall as homes are not coming onto the market fast enough to replenish inventory. This number was also likely impacted by fewer new homes coming onto the market in the second half of March.
We anticipate the number of new listings hitting the market will be impacted more dramatically in April.
Active Listings
Active listings have been down for months as inventory tightens, falling 7% in March. We saw some impact on this number in the second half of the month and should see further impact after a full month of being in a state of emergency.
Overall, active listings inventory will likely be much lower than this time last year.
Months of Inventory
Our months of inventory continues to be extremely low, sitting at 1.3, as our hot market has eaten up inventory. We expect this number to come down again in April as fewer homes are likely to be on the market.
Average Prices
First, it’s important to note that home prices have continued to rise in Hamilton since 1996.
They grew throughout 2017, 2018, and 2019. The rate of increase slowed in 2017 and 2018 because of the new mortgage rules and Fair Housing Plan scares, but it started to pick back up mid-way through last year, and those increases have been escalating every month since.
We hit double-digit price growth when we got into 2020, and in March, the average price for a home went up 16%. That’s the highest price growth we’ve seen since the spring of 2017.
Average Days On Market
Hamilton’s homes are spending an average of 21.1 days on the market, down 10.2% from 2019.
For comparison, homes spent an average of 24.2 days on the market in February of this year.
A Look At What’s To Come
The big question everyone is asking is if prices are coming down.
The short answer is no. In March, prices were up significantly. Sellers are not giving their homes away; we do not see desperation in the market. The market is strong minus the COVID-19 induced slowdown in sales.
Interest rates are providing a significant buffer to the market. While we expect sales to slow down during this time, we’ll get the full picture by the end of April.
In our current market, you need all the expert advice you can get. If you have a question about buying or selling your home in Hamilton, call us at 1-844-484-SOLD or email us here.
