The Cornerstone Association of Realtors® reported 774 sales across the Hamilton-Burlington area last month. This is an increase of about 19% over last year. Month-over-month, sales are also improving. Across the region all key metrics were up over last year, however, we are still below long-term trends for the year.
According to Nicolas von Bredow, Cornerstone spokesperson for Hamilton-Burlington, “the rate cuts in September combined with improved supply choice “helped bring more buyers back to the market this month.” The change is not drastic yet, but von Bredow anticipates more activity if and when rates come down further.
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Let’s take a closer look at what happened in the local real estate market last month:
Hamilton Market Activity
| Variable | 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 459 | 17.4% |
| New Listings | 1,487 | 14.3% |
| Active Listings | 2,471 | 38.7% |
| Months of Inventory | 5.4 | 18.2% |
| Average Price | $816,579 | 4.7% |
| Median Price | $730,000 | 1.4% |
| Average Days on Market | 40.2 | 58.3% |
Burlington Market Activity
| Variable | 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 159 | 14.4% |
| New Listings | 453 | 15.0% |
| Active Listings | 692 | 44.2% |
| Months of Inventory | 4.4 | 26.0% |
| Average Price | $1,140,226 | 7.4% |
| Median Price | $980,000 | -2.4% |
| Average Days on Market | 37.9 | 66.2% |
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Sales Activity
Sales were up in Hamilton and Burlington last month. There were 459 sales reported in Hamilton, up 17.4% over last year, and in Burlington, there were 159 sales, up 14.4% over last year.
New Listings
New listings in Hamilton were up by about 14.3% year-over-year with 1,487 new listings hitting the market. Burlington saw similar growth with 453 new listings, up 15% ov
Active Listings
Active listings, or inventory, continued its upward trend in September. There were 2,471 active listings in Hamilton, up 38.7% over September 2023. There were 692 active listings in Burlington, which was up 44.2% over last year.
Months of Inventory
Months of inventory is used to measure how long it would take to sell off the current housing inventory, supposing no new listings hit the market. Traditionally, anything about 3 months of inventory is considered to be a “buyer’s market.” In September, Hamilton had 5.4 months of inventory, up 18.2% over last year. Months of inventory was up 26% in Burlngton at 4.4 months.
Average Days on Market
Both Hamilton and Burlington saw a steep year-over-year increase in the average days on market. The average DOM in Hamilton was 40.2, up 58.3% over last year. Burlington saw slightly fewer average days on market, at 37.9, up 66.2%
Average Prices
The residential average price across the region was up this month. In Hamilton, the average price for a home was $816,579, up 4.7% over September 2023. The average price in Burlington was $1,140,226, up 7.4% over last year.
In the News
Last month, the Bank of Canada reduced the Policy Rate to 4.25%. The move was widely expected by economists, as the central bank is now seeing “little evidence” of increasing price pressures. Policymakers say that a pause on cuts or a larger cut are possible at the next meeting, depending on their ongoing assessments.
Canadian inflation decelerated to the 2% target range in September. It was the first time we’ve seen inflation fall that low since 2021. Additionally, new data from Statistica Canada showed the Canadian GDP was flat in August. This news may result in the BOC making a “bigger splash” to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.
Justin Trudeau’s Federal Government announced it will make 30-year mortgages available to all first-time buyers and buyers of new construction homes, in a bid to win favour of younger voters. Additionally, mortgage default insurance will now be available on homes up to $1.5 million in value, meaning buyers can bid on these properties without a full 20% down payment.
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has eliminated the policy that requires borrowers with uninsured mortgages to re-take the stress test if they are switching lenders at the time of renewal with the same amortization and loan amount. The OFSI said the risks involved with making this change are minimal and that Canadian credit has shown surprising resilience for the current credit period.
According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the annual pace of housing starts slowed 22% in August compared to July. The pace of urban starts fell 24% and the rate of multi-unit urban projects fell 29%.
A Look at What’s to Come
As expected, we saw another interest rate cut at the beginning of September. It was the third consecutive cut, bringing the Policy Rate down a total of 75 basis points so far. Markets are now predicting at least another 25-basis-point cut for October, however, there’s a 50% chance they will cut by 50 basis points.
This wouldn’t surprise me, as the BOC initially hiked rates faster than most people thought, and they will likely do the same on the way down. Markets are anticipating rate cuts through the end of 2024 all the way to summer 2025, finally coming to rest around the upper 2% range.
All of this will continue to fuel the housing market, encouraging sidelined buyers to act fast as rates go down. Changes to the mortgage rules and stress test also mean that uninsured buyers have more buying power, which will also ramp things up. Overall, this makes for a very interesting year ahead for the Canadian housing market.
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