Sales, inventory, and new listings trended down in Hamilton-Burlington last month, in line with “typical seasonal trends” according to the Cornerstone Association of Realtors®. Year-over-year, we saw market gains across the region, however, most areas are still behind compared to long-term trends.
Cornerstone spokesperson for Hamilton-Burlington, Nicolas von Bredow says that many buyers are holding off purchasing decisions until next year when interest rates are expected to go down further.
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Let’s take a closer look at what happened in the local real estate market last month:
Hamilton Market Activity
| Variable | 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 460 | 7.7% |
| New Listings | 849 | -7.6% |
| Active Listings | 1,998 | 16.4% |
| Months of Inventory | 4.3 | 8.1% |
| Average Price | $787,348 | 3.3% |
| Median Price | $726,000 | 3.7% |
| Average Days on Market | 40.1 | 33.4% |
Burlington Market Activity
| Variable | 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 183 | 25.3% |
| New Listings | 268 | -2.9% |
| Active Listings | 540 | 15.9% |
| Months of Inventory | 3.0 | -7.5% |
| Average Price | $1,096,135 | 6.6% |
| Median Price | $965,000 | 5.8% |
| Average Days on Market | 39.3 | 33.7% |
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Sales Activity
There were 406 residential sales in Hamilton last month, up 7.7% over last year. In Burlington, there were 183 sales, up 25.3% over the same period last year.
New Listings
New listings slowed slightly month-over-month and year-over-year. In Hamilton, 849 new listings came to market in November, down 7.6%. Burlington saw a much smaller dip of 2.9% with 268 new listings hitting the market last month.
Active Listings
Despite the dip in new listings, active listings (inventory) were up in both cities last month. Hamilton had 1,998 active listings, up 16.4% over 2023 while Burlington saw an increase of 15.9% last month with 540 active listings.
Months of Supply
There were 4.3 months of inventory in Hamilton, up 8.1% over last year and slightly up over last month. Burlington had 3.0 months of inventory, the same as last month, and was down 7.5% over last year. This still represents a balanced/buyer’s market.
Average Days on Market
The average days on market in Hamilton and Burlington were up year-over-year. In Hamilton, homes stayed on the market on average 40.1 days, up 33.4% over last year. Burlington was slightly shorter at 39.3 days on market, up 33.7% over last year.
Average Prices
Average sales in the region were slightly up year-over-year. The average price in Hamilton was $787,348, up 3.3% over last year. Burlington home prices were up 6.6% over last year at $1,096,136.
In the News
The last month of the year is typically a time when things start to slow down, but there has been lots of news recently giving us some insights on what 2025 will bring.
In a move that Premier Doug Ford compared to a “family member stabbing you in the back,” President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. Doug Ford said this tariff would be extremely damaging to the Canadian economy, as in Ontario alone there is about $500 billion in annual trade with the US.
Contrary to many industry experts, the Re/Max 2025 housing market outlook report forecasts “flat” home prices in Toronto next year. The report cites surplus inventory and lower demand from first-time buyers as the primary reasons we will only see a price increase of about 0.1% next year.
New home sales in Toronto were stagnant at the end of this year with new condo builds as the most affected property type. In October, there were only about 210 condo apartments sold in Toronto, down 84% year-over-year and 91% below the 10-year average. However, experts are also saying that new construction conditions are improving, forecasting that buyers will “jump back into” the new housing market in the coming months.
A Look at What’s to Come
As expected, we saw another interest rate cut last month. It was the fourth consecutive cut, bringing the Policy Rate down a total of 125 basis points so far. The final Bank of Canada policy meeting of 2024 is coming later this week.
Most economists expected last month’s jumbo rate cut, which didn’t surprise me either. The BOC initially hiked rates faster than most people thought, and they will likely do the same on the way down. Markets are anticipating rate cuts through the end of 2024 all the way to summer 2025, finally coming to rest around the upper 2% range.
All of this will continue to fuel the housing market, encouraging sidelined buyers to act fast as rates go down. Changes to the mortgage rules and stress test also mean that uninsured buyers have more buying power, which will also ramp things up. Overall, this makes for a very interesting year ahead for the Canadian housing market.
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