The Realtors® Association of Hamilton-Burlington reported 1,041 sales in April, down 7% year-over-year but slightly up over last month. Despite the recent pullback, long-term trends are aligned with 2023, but still significantly lower than the 10-year average.
There were 2,085 new listings and the sales-to-new listings ratio dipped by 50%, causing more inventory gains. Although this spike in inventory is significant, it’s also important to note that levels are still exceptionally low compared to the past.
RAHB President, Nicolas von Bredow says higher lending rates continue to weigh on buyers. However, with more sellers listing their homes, these buyers have more choices than previously, which also prevents a significant increase in prices.
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Let’s take a closer look at what happened in the local real estate market last month:
Hamilton Market Activity
| Variable | 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 611 | -8.8% |
| New Listings | 1,257 | 32.7% |
| Active Listings | 1,567 | 45.9% |
| Months of Inventory | 2.6 | 60% |
| Average Price | $818,381 | 1.0% |
| Median Price | $750,000 | 0.0% |
| Average Days on Market | 26.8 | 15.3% |
Burlington Market Activity
| Variable | 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 271 | -5.6% |
| New Listings | 459 | 35.8% |
| Active Listings | 439 | 51.9% |
| Months of Inventory | 1.6 | 60.9% |
| Average Price | $1,152,357 | -0.1% |
| Median Price | $1,050,000 | -1.5% |
| Average Days on Market | 20.3 | 11.8% |
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Sales Activity
There were 596 sales in Hamilton last month, down 7% over last year. Burlington also saw a dip in home sales with 231 in March, down 4.9%.
New Listings
Conversely, new listings saw a significant increase year-over-year. In Hamilton, there were 1,257 new listings, up 32.7%. There were 459 new listings in Burlington, up 35.8% over last year.
Active Listings
Active listings, also known as inventory, was up as well. In Hamilton, there were 1,576 active listings, up 45.9%. Inventory in Burlington was up 51.9% year-over-year with 439 active listings.
Months of Inventory
Both Hamilton and Burlington saw about a 60% increase in months of inventory. In Hamilton, there were 2.6 months of inventory while Burlington had about 1.6 months of inventory. This is a measure often used to determine the type of market we’re currently in. Anything below three months is generally considered to be a “Seller’s Market.”
Average Days on Market
Hamilton homes for sale were on the market for about 26.8 days on average last month, up 15.3% over last year. The average days on market for Burlington was also up 11.8% year-over-year with about 20.3 days on market being the average.
Average Prices
Average prices in Hamilton and Burlington were relatively stable year-over-year. In Hamilton, the average price was $818,381, up 1% over 2023. Burlington prices were down 0.1% over last year with an average residential price of $1,152,357.
In the News
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate for the sixth consecutive meeting in April, signaling that officials are getting closer to cutting rates as early as June. However, the bank does want to ensure that the latest inflation figures are not just temporary dips.
Central banks around the world also held rates last month. The European Central Bank held in April, stating that if current assessments hold, they will likely begin to reduce rates as early as June. In the US, the Federal Reserve says “lingering price pressures in the US economy” could stall any plans for a rate cut in the near future. The bank says it needs more time, but more rate hikes are unlikely.
Experts say central banks worldwide are adopting a “higher for longer” strategy to monetary policy, and it’s likely that only about half of the rate increases from the past two years will be “taken back” in the form of rate cuts before 2025.
The 2024 Federal Budget was released this month. With a strong focus on increasing housing supply and improving conditions for young Canadians, the budget outlines billions in new spending for housing and changes to policies aimed at helping buyers get into the market.
A new survey shows 48% of Canadians expect the value of real estate in their communities to increase over the next six months. The Bank of Canada expects real estate prices to rise moderately over the next two years with tight conditions as lending rates trend downwards.
The Canadian Real Estate Association says it now expects home prices in Canada to rise 4.9% annually to $710,468. This more than double the initial predictions from CREA at the start of the year.
The annual pace of housing starts in Canada declined 7% in March over February according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. However, year-over-year figures in large urban centres were up significantly.
A Look at What’s to Come
The Spring Market is underway and sales continue to trend lower. There are fewer homes trading hands right now, but prices are steadily rising. Buyers and sellers felt a burst of enthusiasm at the promise of rate cuts, that seems to have worn off a bit as it became clear the Bank of Canada would hold off a bit longer before reducing rates.
Holding the Policy Rate was a strategic move to not add any more fuel to the housing fire this spring, as the biggest risk to increased inflation is housing prices as per the latest BOC report. This leads us to a very probable rate cut at the next meeting on June 4, despite the fact that the US Federal Reserve is signaling further holds.
Canada was the first G7 country to begin rate hikes, and will likely be the first to start cutting. This will bring more sales activity in the market and even larger increases in home values. The second half of the year promises a much more robust real estate market than the first half. At the same time, this “economy reset” from the Bank of Canada will likely result in a new longer-term interest rate level going forward.
Are you thinking about making a real estate move in the near future? Call us at 1-844-484-SOLD or email us here for everything you need to know about buying and selling in this market.
